Base Case Alternative Scenarios (Polypill vs Monocomponents)
Polypill Monocomponents Polypill vs Monocomponents 2-y Horizon 5-y Horizon 10-y Horizon 20-y Horizon Framingham Risk Equation NEPTUNO Cohort 3 NEPTUNO Cohort 4
Total costs (€) 10 940 008 10 888 206 +51 802 +23 888 +50 289 +72 087 +59 590 +72 705 -22 958 -63 287
Drug costs (€) 875 140 653 763 +221 376 +39 910 +91 160 +155 546 +215 715 +219 292 +252 198 +236 203
CV event management cost (acute event)(€) 3 820 390 4 010 119 -189 729 -16 282 -42 415 -89 216 -173 343 -175 818 -307 749 -334 938
Subsequent nonfatal CHD (€) 1 124 769 1 180 641 -55 872 -4764 -12 415 -26 142 50 960 -114 691 -90 626 -98 632
Subsequent fatal CHD (€) 212 844 223 404 -10 560 -930 -2420 -5067 -9715 -21 632 -17 129 -18 643
Recurrent nonfatal stroke (€) 2 156 242 2 263 323 -107 081 -9 195 -23 953 -50 377 -97 850 -34 301 -173 691 -189 036
Recurrent fatal stroke (€) 32  535 342 751 -16 216 -1392 -3627 -7629 -14 511 -5194 -26 303 -28 627
CV event management cost (follow-up)(€)a 6 244 478 6 224 323 +20 154 +260 +1 545 +5 757 +17 218 +29 231 +32 593 +35 448
No. of subsequent CV events 306 323 -17 -1 -3 -7 -14 -31 -27 -29
No. of recurrent strokes 300 315 -15 -1 -3 -7 -14 -5 -24 -26
No. of CV deaths 119 125 -6 -0.5 -1 -3 -5 -8 -10 -10
LY 9760.83 9721.80 39.04 0.89 4.28 13.80 35.20 59.28 63.20 68.75
QALY 7371.46 7338.20 33.26 0.83 3.89 12.25 30.26 46.29 53.89 58.63
ICER (€ per LY gained) 1327 26 775 11,738 5225 1693 1226 Polypill dominant Polypill dominant
ICUR (€ per QALY gained) 1557 28 885 12 934 5884 1969 1571 Polypill dominant Polypill dominant
Probability cost-effective (PSA)a 79.7% 54.6% 65.4% 71.2% 82% 97% 87.8% 88.8%