| Scenario |
Potential Cost Impact (€), as Cost
Savings in Relation to Base Casea) |
| Base case |
-2 798 915 |
| Incidence (BC, 14.1%) |
|
| Incidence 30% |
-31 707 067 (+1033%) |
| Incidence 20% |
-13 525 839 (+383%) |
| Incidence 10% |
4 655 389 (-266%) |
| Sensitivity and specificity for comparator (BC, 79.2% and 78.5%, sepsis diagnosis in clinical practice) |
| Sensitivity and specificity for SOFA (80.0% and 48.0%); Desautels et al[@116276] |
-64 124 165 (+2191%) |
| Sensitivity and specificity for NEWS2 (84.0% and 37.0%); Mellhammar et al[@116277] |
-84 956 039 (+2935%) |
| Sensitivity and specificity for NAVOY® Sepsis (BC, 80.0% and 85.1%) |
|
| Sensitivity (BC) and specificity (Sepsis-3) (80.0% and 78.5%) |
10 457 010 (-474%) |
| Time to sepsis detection of prediction algorithm (BC, -3 hours) |
|
| -4 total hours to treatment compared with time to diagnosis for current practice |
-12 000 432 (+329%) |
| -2 total hours to treatment compared with time to diagnosis for current practice |
6 389 236 (-328%) |
| -1 total hours to treatment compared with time to diagnosis for current practice |
15 563 483 (-656%) |
| Probability of septic shock with prediction algorithm (BC, 40%) |
|
| Proportion septic shock is 30% |
-19 671 814 (+603%) |
| Proportion septic shock is 56.6% |
25 210 099 (-1001%) |
| In-hospital mortality (BC time-dependent extrapolated from Ferrer et al[@116257] |
| In-hospital mortality: Decrease in survival for septic shock 7.6% per hour (set to 40% at 0 hours); Kumar et al[@116252] |
-2 035 611 (-27%) |
| In-hospital mortality for septic shock 33% and 22% for no septic shock; Lengquist et al[@116267] |
-3 538 803 (+26%) |
| Length of stay in ICU and hospital ward (BC)b |
|
| Length of stay ICU and ward day increase by 25% |
-13 344 318 (+377%) |
| Length of stay ICU and ward day decrease by 25% |
7 746 489 (-377%) |
| Postdischarge first year |
|
| Septic shock postdischarge mortality first year 0% (BC, 17.5%) |
-2 915 397 (+4%) |
| Readmission rate 0% (BC, 20.6%) |
-3 104 513 (+11%) |
| Readmission rate 40% (BC, 20.6%) |
-2 511 118 (-10%) |
| Unit costs for hospital (BC)c |
|
| Unit cost of ICU and ward day increase by 25% |
-13 344 318 (+377%) |
| Unit cost of ICU and ward day decrease by 25% |
7 746 489 (-377%) |
| Unit cost of readmission increase by 25% (BC, €4166) |
-2 722 515 (-3%) |
| Unit cost of readmission decrease by 25% (BC, €4166) |
-2 875 314 (+3%) |
| Long-term effects |
|
| Long-term survival for patients with sepsis same as general population (BC, see Linder et al[@116270]) |
-2 139 804 (-24%) |
| Long-term consequences not included (BC, included) |
-3 607 600 (+29%) |
| Model time horizon 1 year (BC, lifetime) |
-3 607 600 (+29%) |
| Discount rate 0% (BC, 3%) |
-2 682 947 (-4%) |