Input Variable Sepsis Prediction Algorithm Clinical Practice
Age 60 years (Karlsson et al[@116269])
Incidence 14.1% (Sakr et al[@116249])
Sensitivity/specificity 80.0%/85.1% (NAVOY® Sepsis) 79.2%/78.5% (Lengquist et al[@116267])
Total time to sepsis treatment (compared with time of diagnosis for SOC) True positives
    -3 hours
True positives
    0 hours
False negatives
    +3 hours
False negatives
    +3 hours
Proportion septic shock when detection is set 3 hours earlier than SOC 40% (assumption)
Proportion septic shock SOC (at 0 hours) 56.6% (Sakr et al[@116249])
In-hospital mortality True positives (-3 hours)
    Septic shock, 39.5%
    No septic shock, 0%
False negatives (+3 hours)
    Septic shock, 46.4%
    No septic shock, 1.6%
(Ferrer et al[@116257])
True positives (0 hours)
    Septic shock, 42.8%
    No septic shock, 0%
False negatives (+3 hours)
    Septic shock, 46.4%
    No septic shock, 1.6%
(Ferrer et al[@116257])
Postdischarge mortality first year (applied for patients with septic shock) 17.5% (Karlsson et al[@116269])
Readmission first year (all sepsis patients) 20.6% (Zilberberg et al[@116268])
ICU days Patients with sepsis
    Septic shock, 7.4 days (Ferrer et al[@116257])
    No septic shock, 2.0 days (Ferrer et al[@116257])
Patients without sepsis
    True negatives, 1.0 days (Swedish registry data[@116272])
    False positives, 2.0 days (assume same as “no septic shock”)
Ward days Patients with sepsis
    Septic shock, 17.0 days (Ferrer et al[@116257])
    No septic shock, 5.7 days (Ferrer et al[@116257])
Patients without sepsis
    True negatives, 5.7 days (assume same as “no septic shock”)
    False positives, 5.7 days (assume same as “no septic shock”)
Long-term consequences for patients with sepsis (frequency) Impaired kidney function (14.1%) Amputation (8.5%)
Depression (2.8%)
PTSD (9.9%)
(York Health Economics Consortium[@116271])
Long-term survival Patients with sepsis
    RR vs general population (Linder et al[@116270])
Patients without sepsis
    General population survival
Discount rate 3.0%