Current Treatment Flow	Optimized Treatment Flow	Source of Current Treatment Flow
Number of Newly-Diagnosed Pediatric Patients with Epilepsy Under 10 Years Old per Year	7117	7117	MHLW 2018, Aaberg 2017
Transition Probability to Next Therapy
By Non-specialized Care
From Monotherapy to Two-drug Therapy	38.6%	20.0%	Prescription database*
From Two-drug Therapy to Three-drug Therapy	27.1%	14.0%
From Three-drug Therapy to Four-drug Therapy	23.5%	0.0%
By Specialized Care
From Monotherapy to Two-drug Therapy	27.0%	40.0%	Calibrated from 2019 data in Nagano prefecture
From Two-drug Therapy to Three-drug Therapy	57.0%	48.0%
From Three-drug Therapy to Four-drug Therapy	77.0%	48.0%
Transition Probability to Specialized Care from Non-specialized Care
In Transition During Monotherapy	6.4%	20.0%	Calibrated from 2019 data in Nagano prefecture
In Transition During Two-drug Therapy	27.9%	56.0%
In Transition During Three-drug Therapy	41.5%	90.0%
Transition Probability to Surgical Treatment
In Transition to Two-drug Therapy	3.0%	10.0%	Expert opinion
In Transition to Three-drug Therapy	3.0%	12.0%
In Transition to Four-drug Therapy	3.0%	32.0%
Annual Transition Probability in 40 Years after Transition to Four-drug Therapy/Difficult-to-treat
To Specialized Care from Non-specialized Care	1.5%	-	Calibrated from 2019 data in Nagano prefecture
To Surgery from Specialized Care	1.5%	1.5%
Annual Transition Probability in 5 Years from Specialized Care to Non-specialized Care (primary care)
In Monotherapy	1.0%	80.0%	Calibrated from 2019 data in Nagano prefecture
In Two-drug Therapy	1.0%	50.0%
In Three-drug Therapy	1.0%	20.0%